Assessment of Ozone Impact on Human Health in Italy, Through the Integrated Assessment Modelling System MINNI
In recent years, in Europe, increasing attention has been given to the effect of ground level ozone on human health. At the same time, powerful modelling tools have been developed to assist the policy makers, at continental and national level, in the elaboration of adequate policies to tackle the problem of air pollution and its effects, on the environment and human health. In this paper, the assessment of the effects of ozone on people health, in Italy, is analysed. The Italian modelling system MINNI for Integrated Assessment of Air pollution has been used. MINNI consists in 2 independent models working in parallel. Starting from the emissions generated by the anthropogenic activities and calculated by the RAINS_Italy Model, the modelling system analyses the dispersion of the ozone precursors in the atmosphere and the related chemistry, by means of a national developed Eulerian model (AMS), to finally create ozone concentration distribution over the territory. A suitable health impact indicator, SOMO35, is then elaborated over the calculation domain (20km x 20km cell grid), and compared with related monitoring data for the year 2000. Through a statistical correlation developed by WHO and implemented in the model, the health impact is finally quantified in terms of premature mortality. Comparison of impact at 2000 and 2020 is reported, with different policy assumptions. Conclusions are stemmed about the efficacy of policies in protecting human health.