Urban Air Quality in Cities of Belarus: Current State, Trends and Projection
In the paper key features of air quality in the cities of Belarus and its projection till 2020 are discussed.
Air quality in Belarus are monitored now in most of main cities and industrial centers (about 20). Program of observations include main pollutants (TSP, SO2, NO2, CO) and some specific pollutants.
Generally air quality in cities of Belarus was improved generally in the 90th. This is especially typical for sulfur dioxide (annual average concentrations reduced from 9 mkg/m3 in 1991 to 3 mkg/m3 in 2002) and TSP (reduction from 136 mkg/m3 in 1991 to 56 mkg/м3 in 2002). For other pollutants this reduction was not so essential: for nitrogen dioxide - about 25%, for carbon oxide – about 10%. These improvements are due to dramatically reduction of air emissions in the 90th mainly connected with economic decrease and fuel balance changes; expected economic growth can lead to increase of air pollution. Therefore air quality projection is important for adequacy of measures on air emission reduction assessment.
For projection a statistical modelling approach based on relations between emissions and ambient air concentrations was used. As indicators values of yearly averaged concentrations of TSP, SO2, NO2 and CO were projected for main cities (base years 2010 and 2020). As input data economic development scenarios, national and EMEP emission projections data for European countries was served.
By the estimations growth of the annual average concentrations of the most of pollutants is expected. Greatest growth (about 13%) is expected for suspended particulate matter concentrations.