Is the Clean Air of Brisbane Threatened by Future Population Growth?
Southeast Queensland contains 4 million people, it is a large continuous urban area that extends over approximately 200 kilometres of coastline from Northern New South Wales to Noosa in the north, and west approximately 50 km to Ipswich. The population is growing at a rate of 50,000 people per year. Current plans to accommodate this population will see residential, commercial and industrial development expanding further west. Historically Brisbane’s air quality has been relatively good, with an apparent improvement or stabilisation indicated in the air quality monitoring over the past 10 years. However, occasional peaks in ozone levels (particularly in the western suburbs), a subtropical climate and topography indicate a susceptibility to photochemical activity. Investigations of ozone events suggest that meteorological variability as regards the inland penetration of seabreezes is very important to the occurrence of pollution-conducive days and that, if the changing traffic emission control technologies do not keep pace with the increase in traffic use in Brisbane, then the past 10 years may not be a good guide to the future. This paper looks ahead to 2021 to determine whether air quality in Brisbane and Southeast Queensland is likely to worsen as a result of the current growth in population. A sophisticated chemical transport model was used in conjunction with a prognostic meteorological model to investigate ozone statistics for current and future emissions inventories.