Modelling of Sulphur Dioxide Levels from Coal-Burning Industrial Sources Using a Stochastic Estimation Technique
Industries such as coal-fired power stations use coal with variable sulphur-contents. General practice in air quality impact assessment and dispersion modelling is to use the peak sulphur content as a worst-case estimate of sulphur dioxide emissions. However, in practice, correlating ambient air quality monitoring data with predictions shows that the use of the peak sulphur content can substantially overestimate the magnitude and frequency of concentrations of sulphur dioxide. This has important implications for airshed management and for allocation of airshed capacity to existing and future industries. Consequently more realistic techniques are required to quantify the potential impact on air quality.
This paper presents a stochastic technique and Monte Carlo Simulation to model emissions from the existing power stations in the Hunter Valley and a proposed power station using specific coal sulphur content distributions.